Will it replace us all? I don’t think so. But what is left behind will be a skeleton crew whose main job is to monitor AI systems like the sysadmin in Silicon Valley.
Just want to get a few things out of the way:
- These are just my opinions, man.
- The sky is not falling
- AI is (probably) coming
- Devin is vaporware
I’m doing some reflection looking for the most level-headed plan that both acknowledges and respects AI could displace a very large number of developers (myself included), but I’m also not advocating for panicking.
Let's acknowledge that AI is coming
AI will improve in quality rapidly as it already has, so I think taking any kind of solace in its shortcomings now is just copium, as if this train will suddenly stop. I don’t think it will. I think it's reasonable to see the forest for the trees and acknowledge that AI is coming in some form or another.
AI doesn't need to be perfect to replace (most of) us.
Even if the AI is only 80% as good, my gut sense is that is all the incentive a huge number of non-FAANG employers will need to drastically reduce the engineering team headcount. Most small / medium sized businesses that are not tech companies but employ engineers will see the largest reduction.
Notice I didn’t say replace. Reduce. And that’s the takeaway I think will blindside a lot of tech workers.
Will it replace us all? I don’t think so. But what is left behind will be a skeleton crew whose main job is to monitor AI systems like the sysadmin in Silicon Valley.
Overall, I think it will cause a significant contraction in the market for the commodity of development (because that is what it is).
Is there anything we can do? I’m not sure. I can’t predict the future and I don’t want to suffer over a future that may never come. But, I also want to focus on what is within my control to mitigate the risk if it does, to a reasonable degree. Again, don’t let the doomers ruin your vibe.
Just my opinions as I parse some existential dread over a glass of wine and an elasticsearch error in my console.
Oh, and Fuck Devin.